Tallinna FC Levadia vs Trans: match statistics

Levadia are top of the table and have won 16 of their 22 matches this season, while Trans sit 10th, having suffered 16 defeats in 23 games. At home, the hosts average 2.8 goals per match, create chances worth 2.28 xG and attempt 19.7 shots, whereas Trans score just 0.36 goals per away game. The visitors’ defence looks particularly vulnerable: they concede an average of 2.82 goals away from home, with 1.79 xG against, and have lost 82% of their away matches. Levadia also have a clear advantage in terms of game control, averaging 60% possession compared with Trans’ 43%, and have scored in every home match. Although Trans have improved their results over the last five rounds, conceding only 4 goals during that run, their long-term away problems and limited attacking output clearly point towards a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Trans’s seasonal lack of attacking efficiency: the visitors score just 0.36 goals per match on average and have failed to score in 73% of their games. Their BTTS rate is only 27%, clearly below Levadia’s 58% and the league average of 59%, while their shot conversion rate stands at just 3%, compared with 8% for the home side. Levadia have conceded 1.67 goals per game on average, but across their last five matches, their average goals conceded has dropped to 1.2, with an xG against of 1.21. Trans have recently shown better attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals and an xG of 1.78 over their last five matches, but their long-term scoring problems remain the stronger signal. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team—primarily Trans—will fail to score.

The Over 1.5 goals line is strongly supported by the season data: it has landed in 92% of the hosts’ matches and in 73% of Trans’ games. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.61 xG, while Trans allow opponents 1.79 xG away from home and concede an average of 2.82 goals. Both teams are also in strong attacking form, as each has scored 2.2 goals per game over their last five matches, with the hosts generating as much as 2.79 xG. Trans’ weaker finishing—scoring just 0.36 goals per game away from home—limits confidence in a high Over 2.5 goals line, but does not undermine the advantage of Over 1.5 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a win for Tallinna FC Levadia, as the hosts perform significantly better after the break: they averaged 0.58 goals in that period, while Trans failed to score a single goal. Trans concede as many as 1.73 goals per match after half-time and lost that half in 91% of their matches, whereas Levadia averaged 1.25 points in the second half compared with just 0.09 for their opponents. The first half is less decisive, as both teams often went into the break trailing — Levadia in 50% and Trans in 55% of matches — but in their last five games, the hosts were level at half-time in 40% of cases. Levadia’s advantage is further reinforced by their season record: they win 33% of their matches, compared with just 9% for Trans, while the visitors concede an average of 2.82 goals per game. The hosts create more chances, recording an xG of 1.61 and 4.0 shots on target per match, compared with Trans’s 1.33 xG and 3.09 shots on target.