Tepatitlán de Morelos vs CDS Tampico Madero: match statistics

Tepatitlán de Morelos are slight favourites, primarily because CDS Tampico Madero have lost all of their last 5 away matches. The visitors average just 0.2 goals on the road and have failed to score in 80% of those games, despite averaging 1.11 xG. At home, the hosts score an average of 0.8 goals with an xG of 1.25, giving them an edge in finishing, but not suggesting an easy win. Their defence remains a serious concern: they concede an average of 2.6 goals at home and have shipped 18 goals in their last 5 matches. Both teams have won only 1 of their last 5 games, so home advantage and the visitors’ poor away scoring record point to the hosts, although a draw or a Tampico Madero win remains a realistic possibility.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is the visitors’ poor away scoring record: they average 0.2 goals and have failed to score in 80% of those matches. The hosts average 2.0 goals at home, while Tampico Madero concede 2.2 away from home, making a Tepatitlán goal more likely than both teams scoring. However, the visitors’ recent form calls for caution: they averaged 1.2 goals across their last five matches, while the hosts conceded as many as 3.6 goals per game over that period. Despite this warning sign, BTTS has occurred in just 20% of Tampico Madero’s away matches, compared with 60% of Tepatitlán’s home games, so there is a slight edge to the outcome in which at least one team fails to score.

Tepatitlán average 2.0 goals at home, while Tampico Madero concede 2.2 on the road, giving the hosts a strong basis for scoring more than once. The visitors score just 0.2 goals per away match and have failed to score in 80% of those games, although their average of 1.2 goals across their last five matches suggests their chances of finding the net cannot be ruled out entirely. In addition, Tepatitlán have conceded 18 goals in their last five matches, increasing the likelihood of an away goal despite Tampico Madero’s poor results on the road. At least two goals were scored in 80% of Tepatitlán’s home matches and 60% of Tampico Madero’s away matches. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick: an expected total of 2.85 goals gives this line a clearer edge than the more demanding Over 2.5.

Tepatitlán led at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches and did not concede a single first-half goal in any of them, while Tampico Madero have yet to lead at half-time in an away match. The hosts average 1.2 goals scored before half-time at home, while the visitors concede an average of 1.0 on the road, supporting the case for an early Tepatitlán lead. The advantage is also clear over the full 90 minutes: the hosts average 2.0 goals at home and have won 3 of their 5 matches, whereas the visitors score just 0.2 goals per away match and have lost all 5. Although Tepatitlán have lost 4 of their last 5 matches overall, their home record and their opponents’ away results make a Tepatitlán lead at the break followed by a full-time win the most likely scenario in the HT/FT market.