Teuta Durrës vs Tirana: match statistics

Teuta Durrës remain unbeaten in the current campaign, scoring 5 goals and conceding just 4 in their last five matches, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Tirana have a stronger record over their last five games, securing 4 wins and scoring 7 goals, but their only away fixture so far ended in a 0:3 defeat. The visitors enjoyed 55% possession in that match and averaged 10 shots, yet despite an xG of 1.20, they failed to score, highlighting a finishing problem away from home. Tirana’s defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.37 and conceded 3 goals on the road, although Teuta have also yet to provide confirmed evidence of a home advantage. The combination of the hosts’ more stable defence and Tirana’s strong recent form but poor away efficiency points towards a draw.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as both Teuta and Tirana recorded a BTTS outcome in only 40% of their last five matches, identical to the league-wide average. During this period, Teuta conceded just 0.8 goals per match, with an xG against of 0.84, which limits Tirana’s goal-scoring prospects. Tirana did average 1.4 goals per game, but its xG stood at only 1.11, while the hosts generated a high 1.78 xG and may dominate the result in a one-sided fashion. The league averages only 2.0 goals per match, with as many as 80% of games featuring at least one team keeping a clean sheet, so it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The profile of the last five matches points to a game with a moderate number of goals: Teuta averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Tirana averaged 1.4 and 1.0, respectively. The defensive potential is further confirmed by the average xG allowed by both teams, standing at just 0.84 for Teuta and 0.94 for Tirana. The Albanian league produces an average of 2.0 goals per match, with only 40% of games exceeding the 2.5-goal line. Although Over 2.5 goals has landed in 3 of Tirana’s last 5 matches, Teuta has gone over this line only once, giving the scenario of a maximum of three goals a clear edge. The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as losing this bet requires at least four goals, which is not supported by the defensive data or the league average.

Tirana have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals, while Teuta have recorded 2 victories and averaged 1.0 goal. The hosts tend to start matches very cautiously: they were level at half-time in 80% of their last five outings, scoring just 0.2 goals per game before the break. Nevertheless, Tirana led at half-time in 40% of those matches, whereas Teuta did not lead at the break on any occasion, strengthening the case for the away side to be ahead at half-time. After the break, Tirana score an average of 1.0 goal while conceding just 0.2, making a Tirana lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory the strongest single HT/FT scenario.