The New Saints vs Connah's Quay: match statistics
The New Saints vs Connah's Quay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
The New Saints played Connah's Quay in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 3 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
The New Saints: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Connah's Quay: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
The New Saints scores 2.60 and concedes 0.80 goals per match. Connah's Quay scores 1.97 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.89 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: The New Saints 40%, Connah's Quay 67%. Over 2.5: The New Saints 67%, Connah's Quay 70%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
The New Saints has higher xG: 2.11 vs 1.77. The New Saints: 16.6 shots per match, Connah's Quay: 13.1.
Match halves
The New Saints: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 1.50. Connah's Quay: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.13.
Goals by minute
The New Saints: 76-90+ (19 goals). Connah's Quay: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 2.89 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-1. Average goals 3.33, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The New Saints appear to be the favorites: at home they average 2.93 goals per game versus Connah's Quay's 1.73 away, and season xG is 2.26 for TNS compared to 1.54 for the visitors, indicating a clear advantage in chance creation. The hosts average 18.33 shots and 6.93 on target at home with 68% possession, while Connah's has 11.4 shots and 5.4 on target with 55% possession, so TNS generates substantially more high-quality opportunities. Defensively both teams are similar (average goals conceded ~0.93 in home/away context, xG against 0.98 vs 1.05), but TNS has a higher clean sheet rate at home (53% vs 40%) and a lower percentage of matches without scoring (13% vs 27%). In the last 5 matches both sides scored 8 goals, however TNS recorded 3 wins and 2 losses (avg 1.8 pts/match) versus Connah's 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 pts/match), giving the hosts an edge in form and efficiency. Considering TNS's 80% home win rate combined with superior offensive stats and game control, I predict a victory for The New Saints.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics favor BTTS 'Yes': The New Saints average 2.2 goals per game (xG 2.0) and have a home BTTS rate of 87% with only 13% clean sheets, indicating hosts rarely finish without conceding. Connah's Quay average 1.73 goals per game (xG 1.54) and concede 0.93 goals on the road, and in their last 5 matches they recorded BTTS in 80% of games, so the visitors have recently both scored and conceded regularly. Both teams generate chances: TNS averages 14.87 shots with 6.47 on target, Connah's Quay 11.4 with 5.4 on target, with an equal conversion rate of 15%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Counter signals are the visitors' seasonal BTTS rate of 47% and league clean sheet percentage of 57%, but TNS's offensive superiority and the visitors' recent form prevail. Therefore I assess BTTS 'Yes' probability at 75% vs 25% and recommend a 'yes' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The calculated expected goals are 1.53 for The New Saints and 1.44 for Connah's Quay, totaling 2.97 xG, which strongly supports outcomes over 1.5. The New Saints average 2.20 goals per game, Connah's Quay 1.73 (combined 3.93), and the home side have 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals while the visitors 73%. 80% of home matches finished over 2.5 goals and 60% for the away team, so Over 2.5 also looks attractive (est. 72% probability). The low number of clean sheets for the hosts (13%) and the fact that in 87% of The New Saints’ matches both teams scored increase the likelihood of an Over outcome. Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The home side hold a clear offensive advantage: home xG for The New Saints is 2.0 versus 1.54 xG for Connah's Quay, and the season average goals are 2.2 (home) versus 1.73 (away). At half-time TNS led in 8 home matches, i.e. in 53% of cases, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded by the break, giving them a real lead at the break after 45 minutes. After 90 minutes the hosts remain favored: 53% home wins and a goals comparison of 2.2 scored at home versus 0.93 conceded by visitors away suggest a typical full-time score around 2-1, with 87% of TNS matches featuring both teams scoring. For these reasons the strongest signal is 1/1 (lead at the break and home win at full-time), which I assign a 35% probability; the alternative of a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1) I rate at 15%, and scenarios with the away side leading at the break account for roughly 20% overall.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| The New Saints | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 45% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
The New Saints is 71% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - The New Saints · 1.4 pts / match - Connah's Quay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
The New Saints is 32% better for: goals scored per match.
2.6 goals / match - The New Saints · 1.97 goals / match - Connah's Quay
The New Saints is 46% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.8 goals / match - The New Saints · 1.17 goals / match - Connah's Quay
The New Saints scores in 90% of matches (27 of 30 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 27% (8 of 30 matches).
Connah's Quay scores in 87% of matches (26 of 30 matches), while The New Saints keeps a clean sheet in 53% (16 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - The New Saints
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
The New Saints is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.07 pts / match - The New Saints · 1.7 pts / match - Connah's Quay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
The New Saints - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 80%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +12 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
The New Saints
Connah's Quay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| The New Saints | Liga | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.40 | 2.89 | ▲ 3.13 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 51% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 54% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 53% | 29% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 73% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 76% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): The New Saints 2 - 0 - 1 Connah's Quay. Average goals 3.33, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of The New Saints vs Connah's Quay?
The Welsh Premier League match finished The New Saints 2:1 Connah's Quay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between The New Saints and Connah's Quay?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches The New Saints won 2, Connah's Quay won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before The New Saints vs Connah's Quay?
The New Saints score 2.60 goals per game on average and Connah's Quay 1.97. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 40% of The New Saints's matches and 67% of Connah's Quay's.
What form are The New Saints and Connah's Quay in?
Over the last 5 games The New Saints have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Connah's Quay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for The New Saints vs Connah's Quay?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.