TPS vs Jaro: match statistics

TPS are favorites primarily because of their home form: they have won 54% of their home matches, while Jaro are yet to record an away win and have lost 77% of those games. The hosts average 1.38 goals scored and 0.92 conceded at home, whereas Jaro manage just 0.38 goals per away game and concede 2.38. The difference in finishing is clear even with a similar number of shots: TPS convert 11% of their attempts, compared with just 3% for Jaro, who have failed to score in 69% of their away matches. However, both teams are winless in their last five games, and TPS have scored only once during that run, which increases the likelihood of a draw. Despite this poor spell, the hosts’ home advantage and Jaro’s struggles in front of goal point to a TPS win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Jaro’s poor finishing: the visitors average just 0.38 goals away from home and fail to score in 69% of those matches. Their 3% shot conversion rate and average of 3.15 shots on target contrast with an xG of 1.33, showing that they rarely turn their chances into goals. TPS keeps a clean sheet in only 17% of its home matches, but its own scoring form has also dipped: it has scored just 1 goal across its last 5 games. Over the same period, BTTS occurred in 20% of TPS matches and 40% of Jaro matches, so recent results support the pick that at least one team will fail to score. The risk is the visitors’ weak defence, which concedes an average of 2.38 goals away from home, but a TPS goal alone would not be enough for BTTS - Yes to land.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 75% of TPS matches and 77% of Jaro matches. Over their last five games, TPS averaged just 0.2 goals scored and Jaro 0.4; during that period, Over 2.5 goals landed in 20% and 0% of their matches, respectively. The visitors’ weak attack—they averaged 0.38 goals scored across the season and failed to score in 69% of matches—limits the likelihood of a high-scoring game, despite conceding an average of 2.38 goals. TPS could exploit that defensive weakness, which is why the forecast is 1.55 goals for the home side and 0.65 for the visitors, for a total of 2.2. The 3.5 line offers more margin than 2.5, particularly given that at least three goals were scored in 50% of TPS matches and 46% of Jaro matches over the season.

A draw at half-time followed by a TPS win is the most likely outcome. In their last five matches, both teams were level at the break three times, while TPS failed to score in any first half, pointing to a cautious start. Over the season as a whole, however, the home side have a clear advantage: they average 1.25 goals per match compared with Jaro’s 0.38, and the visitors have lost 77% of their matches. The chances of the game being decided after the break are also higher because Jaro concede an average of 1.38 goals in second halves, although TPS score only 0.33 in that period. The home side’s lower scoring output means a draw after 90 minutes remains a significant alternative, but TPS’s advantage over Jaro supports the X/1 HT/FT pick.