TransINVEST Vilnius vs Žalgiris: match statistics

Both teams have collected 7 points from their last five matches, recording identical returns of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, so current form does not indicate a clear favourite. At home, TransINVEST score an average of 1.29 goals with an xG of 1.41, while Žalgiris create more high-quality chances away from home (xG 1.73) but score just 1.00 goal per match. The visitors are more solid defensively, conceding 0.79 goals per away game and keeping a clean sheet in 57% of matches, compared with 1.07 goals conceded and 43% clean sheets for the hosts. At the same time, Žalgiris fail to score in as many as 50% of their away matches, which limits the significance of their advantage in shots on target: 4.5 compared with 3.5 for TransINVEST. With home and away records closely matched and Žalgiris drawing in a high 36% of their away matches, a share of the points is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Žalgiris’ profile: only 21% of their league matches featured goals from both teams, while they failed to score in 50% of their games. The visitors are also highly solid defensively, conceding an average of 0.79 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 57% of their appearances. TransINVEST do average 1.93 goals and recorded BTTS in 64% of their matches, but they will face an opponent with a significantly stronger defense than their typical opponents. The last five matches also do not decisively support the Goal/Goal option, as Žalgiris recorded BTTS in only 20% of games despite creating chances worth 2.10 xG per match. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which at least one team—particularly Žalgiris, given their 50% rate of failing to score—does not find the net.

Žalgiris has a very solid defense: it concedes just 0.79 goals per match on average and keeps a clean sheet in 57% of games, which should limit the hosts despite their average of 1.93 goals scored. In the away team’s matches, the Under 3.5 goals line has landed in as many as 93% of cases, while Over 2.5 goals has occurred in only 36% of their games. TransINVEST plays more openly, with at least 3 goals scored in 71% of its matches, but over its last five appearances it has averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The visitors create quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.73 for the season and 2.10 over their last five matches, but their finishing efficiency is only 7%, with 1.0 goal scored per game. The projected total of 2.55 goals points to a realistic chance of two or three goals, while the four-goal threshold is clearly overpriced relative to Žalgiris’ defensive strength and scoring profile.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a TransINVEST Vilnius win, as Žalgiris were level at the break in 57% of their matches this season and in as many as 80% of their last five. The visitors score only 0.36 goals per match before half-time and failed to score in the first half in 71% of their appearances, while the hosts concede an average of 0.57 goals during this phase. After the break, TransINVEST improve their attacking output to 0.93 goals per match, rising to 1.20 over their last five games, giving them a genuine advantage after an even opening. The hosts have won 57% of their matches this season and average 1.93 goals, whereas Žalgiris ended without scoring in as many as 50% of their fixtures. Although the visitors’ defence is solid and keeps a clean sheet in 57% of matches, TransINVEST’s superior conversion rate—13% compared with 7%—supports a scenario in which the match is decided after half-time.