Tukums vs FS Jelgava: match statistics

Tukums have significantly better numbers at home, averaging 1.85 goals per match, while FS Jelgava score just 1.15 away from home. The hosts also create slightly higher-quality chances (xG 1.39 versus 1.31), register more shots on target—5.00 to 3.69—and convert 16% of their attempts compared to 11% for the visitors. Jelgava’s away defence concedes an average of 1.77 goals and allows opponents an xG of 1.91, which should benefit Tukums’ attacking play. Both teams have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 3 and 4 goals respectively during that period, so the hosts’ advantage is not substantial. Despite their poor recent form, Tukums should make better use of home advantage, especially as Jelgava fail to score in 38% of their away matches.

The signal points toward BTTS - No, primarily due to Tukums’ low scoring efficiency: they average 0.93 goals per game this season and just 0.6 across their last five matches. The hosts have failed to score in 50% of their league fixtures, compared with 38% for Jelgava, so the risk that at least one team will remain scoreless is significant. BTTS has occurred in only 36% of Tukums’ matches this season, while the figure stood at 40% for both teams across their respective last five games, below the league average of 56%. The defences are not watertight, with the teams conceding an average of 2.0 and 1.6 goals recently, but their limited attacking output — just 7 goals combined across their two latest five-match runs — reduces the chances of both teams scoring. Jelgava’s xG from their last five matches stands at 1.42, while Tukums create only 1.01 xG, which further supports a scenario in which the visitors score and the hosts fail to respond.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: Tukums average 0.93 goals per game, while Jelgava average 1.15, although both defences concede 1.64 and 1.77 goals respectively. In their last five matches, both teams’ attacks have been less effective, with Tukums scoring 3 goals and Jelgava 4, while conceding 18 goals combined. At the same time, the xG figures are higher, standing at 1.33 for the home side and 1.31 for the visitors, while the opponents’ average xG is 1.91 and 1.67, supporting a forecast of around 2.60 goals. However, the 3.5 line is strongly backed by seasonal data: 79% of Tukums’ matches and 62% of Jelgava’s fixtures ended with fewer than four goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 is the safest selection, as even with vulnerable defences, both teams rarely score 2 or more goals each.

FS Jelgava has a clearer first-half profile: they led at the break in 38% of matches, compared with just 29% for Tukums, while the hosts were behind at half-time in as many as 50% of games. Tukums concede an average of 0.79 goals before the break, while scoring just 0.43, whereas the visitors average 0.69 goals scored and conceded in this phase. Across the season, Jelgava average 1.15 goals per match compared with Tukums’ 0.93, and their shot conversion rate stands at 11%, versus 8% for the hosts. Tukums’ defence concedes an average of 1.64 goals per match, while in their last five outings the team has conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game and lost 4 of 5 matches. The 2/2 scenario is therefore the most likely, although Jelgava’s high season draw rate of 38% keeps the risk of a second-half turnaround relatively significant.