Ulsan vs Anyang: match statistics

I back Anyang to win (2): the visitors show better form, averaging 2 points over the last 5 matches and winning 3 of 5, while Ulsan averages only 1 point and has 1 win in their last five. Anyang’s defense looks more solid — Ulsan concedes 1.7 goals per home match versus Anyang’s 1.0 goals conceded on the road; the difference is confirmed by goal differentials home/away (Ulsan -2 vs Anyang +6). The attacks are relatively even (Ulsan 1.5 goals per home match vs Anyang 1.6 away), but the visitors are more efficient with shots: 15% conversion versus 9% for the hosts, despite hosts taking more shots (16.7 vs 10.5) and having more shots on target (5.3 vs 4.7). Quality-of-chances metrics show Ulsan generates higher xG at home (1.89 vs 1.39 for Anyang away), suggesting an edge in chance creation, but lack of finishing limits that advantage. Considering form (2 vs 1 average), the visitors’ better defense and higher shot conversion, I give Anyang the greater probability of victory.

Both teams signal a strong BTTS: Ulsan has 80% of matches with both teams scoring this season, Anyang 70%, and in the last 5 matches Ulsan recorded BTTS in 100% of cases, Anyang in 80%. Ulsan has no clean sheets at home (0%), and although Anyang has 30% clean sheets, in the last 5 matches Anyang averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Ulsan averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded. Looking at chance creation, Anyang averages 10.5 shots with 4.7 on target and has xG of 1.39, whereas Ulsan averages 9.2 shots with 3.1 on target and xG 1.16, which favors away goals. Additionally, the average xG against Anyang is 1.97, suggesting opponents create many chances despite a season average of 1.0 goals conceded, and Ulsan does not keep clean sheets (0%), so the probability of both teams scoring increases. In light of the 80%/70% seasonal BTTS and very strong runs in the last 5 (100%/80%), I pick BTTS 'Yes' with a probability of 85% versus 15% for 'No'.

The forecast favors the Over market, with particular emphasis on the 1.5 line — expected total goals are approximately 3.18 (Ulsan 1.65, Anyang 1.53). This season Ulsan have recorded Over 1.5 in 80% of matches, Anyang in 70%, and in the last 5 rounds Ulsan’s matches averaged 3.4 goals per game (17 goals in 5 matches), Anyang 3.2 goals (16 in 5), confirming a higher tempo of play. Both teams frequently exchange goals: the share of matches with BTTS is 80% for Ulsan and 70% for Anyang, and in the last 5 matches respectively 100% and 80%. xG and shot statistics indicate chance creation: Ulsan xG 1.16 with 9.2 shots and 3.1 on target, Anyang xG 1.39 with 10.5 shots and 4.7 on target; opponents generate xG of 1.55 and 1.97 against them, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities. A Poisson model with lambda = 3.18 yields probability of over 1.5 goals ≈83%, over 2.5 ≈62% and over 3.5 ≈39%, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

The dominant signal is a draw at half-time: Ulsan were level at the break in 60% of their matches and Anyang in 70%, giving an average 65% chance of a half-time draw. After the break the advantage shifts to Anyang: the visitors win 50% of matches versus 20% for the hosts, scoring on average 1.6 goals per game compared to Ulsan’s 1.2, and xG of 1.39 versus 1.16 confirms greater offensive creation value for the visitors. Additionally, Ulsan have 80% clean halves but 0% clean full matches, and concede on average 1.1 goals after the break, which suggests they lose their edge in the second half. Anyang produce more shots on target (4.7 vs 3.1) and concede fewer goals in the second half (0.7 vs 1.1), so the most likely scenario is a half-time draw followed by a win for the visitors. Therefore I select X/2 as the pick with the highest probability and assign it a 36% chance, while I assess X/X at 23% and 1/1 at 15%.