URA vs KCCA: match statistics

A draw looks the most likely outcome, as URA have yet to score in their only home match, while KCCA have failed to find the net in both of their away fixtures. Both teams are creating chances worth an average of 1.69 xG in these conditions, so their lack of finishing so far may not continue. URA average 11 shots at home, including 5 on target, compared with KCCA’s 9 shots and 4 on target away from home. However, the visitors concede chances worth less xG: 0.96 compared with 1.17 for the hosts. Form does little to separate the sides either, with both winning 2 of their last 5 matches and collecting 7 points over that spell. KCCA drew one of their two away games, while URA lost their only home match, so with such a small sample size, a draw remains the more cautious pick than a win for either side.

The strongest indication that at least one team will fail to score comes from results in the relevant conditions: URA average 0.5 goals at home, while KCCA average 0.0 away. In these matches, the home side failed to score in 50% of games and the away side in 100%, with neither team recording BTTS. Both teams have also scored relatively infrequently in their last 5 matches: in 40% of URA’s games and 20% of KCCA’s. A counterpoint is the average xG of 1.88 for the home side and 1.69 for the visitors, which suggests chances may arise despite their poor finishing. However, the results so far and the league BTTS rate of 38% point more clearly towards BTTS - No.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in any of the teams’ matches to date, although the sample is small. The league averages 2.03 goals per match, while the home and away sides have scored 1.2 and 1.0 goals per match, respectively, across their last five games. However, higher average xG figures over those five matches—1.53 for URA and 1.82 for KCCA—point to greater attacking potential than the results alone suggest, so the forecast of 2.15 goals does not assume an extremely tight match. The 3.5 line offers more margin than 2.5, particularly given that matches featuring at least three goals accounted for 60% of URA’s recent games, but only 20% of KCCA’s.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: KCCA were level at the break in both of their away matches so far, while URA failed to score in the first half in both of their home games. The last five matches overall point in a similar direction, with KCCA drawing at half-time three times and keeping a first-half clean sheet four times. After the break, the home side have the better chance of making the breakthrough: URA average 0.5 goals in this half at home, while KCCA concede an average of 1.0 goals away. URA average 14.5 shots at home compared with KCCA’s 9.0 away, and have earned 1.5 points per game at home against the visitors’ 0.5 points per game away. I therefore predict a half-time draw and a URA win at full-time (X/1), although the edge is slight: both teams have averaged 1.4 points per match over their last five games, and the available home and away statistics cover only two matches each.