Vaprus vs Tammeka: match statistics

I predict an away win (Tammeka) based on superior form and xG profile: Tammeka in the last 5 matches has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 2.0 points per game, while Vaprus in their last 5 has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (avg. 1.4 points per game). The visitors generate on average 1.95 xG away and 18.14 shots per match (6 on target), whereas the hosts at home have 1.23 xG and 9 shots (3.78 on target), meaning Tammeka has about 0.72 higher xG and nearly double the number of shots. Defensively Vaprus performs worse: 34 goals conceded this season versus 21 conceded by Tammeka (a 13-goal difference), and at home Vaprus concedes on average 1.78 goals per match compared to 1.43 conceded by the visitors on the road. Countering this is the better finishing of the hosts (conversion 16% vs 6% for the visitors) and the fact that Vaprus fail to score in 22% of home matches, while Tammeka are goalless in 43% of their away games, which reduces confidence in the outcome. Considering Tammeka’s advantage in xG, shot volume and form, I assess the probabilities as: away win 55%, draw 25%, Vaprus win 20%.

I tip 'BTTS - Yes' with a 62% probability (38% for 'No') because both teams' attacking and defensive metrics point to an open game. Tammeka's away xG is 1.95 versus Vaprus's home xG against of 1.66, while Vaprus's home xG is 1.35 versus Tammeka's xG against of 1.51, yielding roughly 3.3 xG combined. Tammeka averages 18.14 shots and 6.0 shots on target per away match, compared to Vaprus's 11.1 and 3.9; despite a lower conversion rate (6% vs 11%), their high volume of attempts raises the likelihood of at least one goal. Clean sheets are uncommon — hosts keep a clean sheet in 30% of matches, visitors in 29% — and BTTS occurs in 56% of league games, so a no-goal outcome for one team is not the norm. Additionally, Vaprus have conceded 34 goals this season and have BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches (3/5), while Tammeka have 40% (2/5), which further supports the both-teams-to-score scenario.

The xG model shows 1.35 for Vaprus and 1.95 for Tammeka, with xG against 1.66 (Vaprus) and 1.51 (Tammeka); this produces expected goals of 1.43 for the home side and 1.81 for the visitors, totaling about 3.24. The league average goals is 3.04, and both teams have a high share of matches with at least one goal (Vaprus 90%, Tammeka 86%), which supports a higher-scoring scenario. Tammeka averages 18.14 shots and 6.0 shots on target versus Vaprus’s 11.1 and 3.9; the visitors’ higher shot volume and xG 1.95 increases the likelihood of goals from their side. Historically over 2.5 goals occurred in 50% of Vaprus matches and 57% of Tammeka matches, while the league has 65% of games over 2.5; therefore I assess the probability of Over 2.5 at around 72%, whereas Over 3.5 is less likely (~34%) in line with seasonal 30%/29%. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 goals (92%), so I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the most reliable option.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Vaprus were level at the break in 60% of their matches and Tammeka in 57%, so the HT is most likely to be a draw. After the break the advantage lies with the visitors — Tammeka’s average xG is 1.95 versus Vaprus’s 1.35, and averages of 18.14 shots versus 11.1 and 6.0 shots on target versus 3.9 clearly indicate more chances created by Tammeka. Tammeka also wins matches more often (43% wins this season compared to Vaprus’s 30%) and in the last five matches have a 60% win rate versus Vaprus’s 40%, which increases the probability of a visitor victory following a half-time draw. Both teams also have a high proportion of goals scored in the second half (around 70% of matches with goals in the second half for each side), so a decision after 45 minutes is realistic; therefore I select X/2 as the strongest signal.