Waterford vs Dundalk: match statistics

Waterford are in excellent form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches while remaining unbeaten, scoring 10 goals and conceding just 2 during that spell. Dundalk have scored 16 goals in their last five games, but lost 3 of them and conceded 11 goals, significantly undermining their defensive reliability. The hosts concede an average of 1.14 goals at home, compared with 1.80 for the visitors away from home, while Dundalk keep a clean sheet in just 7% of such matches. The visitors create more chances, averaging 16.07 shots and 1.74 xG away from home, compared with Waterford’s 12.5 shots and 1.40 xG at home, but the hosts’ current efficiency and defensive solidity point to a narrow victory. A draw remains a realistic scenario, as 50% of Waterford’s home matches and 47% of Dundalk’s away games have ended level.

The seasonal signal for both teams to score is clear: BTTS occurred in 71% of Waterford’s matches and as many as 80% of Dundalk’s, compared with the league average of 60%. Waterford should have very favorable conditions to score, averaging 1.64 goals and 1.91 xG, while Dundalk concede 1.80 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 7% of their games. The visitors also create plenty of chances, recording 1.53 goals, 1.74 xG, and 5.20 shots on target per match on average, providing a solid basis for a scoring response. Waterford’s last five matches reduce confidence in the pick, as the team conceded only 2 goals and had BTTS in 40% of those games; however, Dundalk averaged 3.2 goals scored during this period, while their BTTS rate remained at 80%. The most likely scenario is therefore that both teams will score at least one goal.

Waterford average 1.64 goals per match, while Dundalk concede 1.80, which favors goals for the home side. The visitors score an average of 1.53 goals, with their average xG standing at 1.74, while Waterford allow opponents an xG of 1.42. In their last five matches, Waterford scored 10 goals and Dundalk as many as 16, although the hosts’ strong defensive form, with an average of just 0.4 goals conceded, limits the expectation of a very high-scoring game. At least two goals were scored in 86% of Waterford’s matches and 93% of Dundalk’s, clearly more often than three goals, which occurred in 64% and 60% of matches respectively. Therefore, the safest pick is Over 1.5: the data from both teams strongly points to at least two goals, with less risk than on the 2.5 line.

Waterford led at half-time in 43% of their matches, while Dundalk went into the break trailing in as many as 47% of games; the hosts concede just 0.36 goals per match before half-time, compared with 0.93 for the visitors. In their last five matches, Waterford scored 10 goals, conceded only 2, and won 4 times, whereas Dundalk suffered 3 defeats and allowed an average of 2.2 goals. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.91 compared with Dundalk’s 1.74, while Waterford’s opponents generate fewer chances, with an average xG against of 1.42 versus 1.56. After the break, Waterford score an average of 0.93 goals, and Dundalk lose the second half in 53% of cases; therefore, the most likely scenario is for the hosts to lead at the break and secure a final victory — an HT/FT 1/1 outcome.