Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island: match statistics

Wuhan Three Towns possess a clear attacking edge at home: they average 1.36 goals, generate 1.61 xG and record 4.73 shots on target per match, compared with Qingdao Youth Island’s away figures of 1 goal, 1.19 xG and 3.08 shots on target. The hosts have scored 9 goals and conceded just 5 in their last five matches, while the visitors have netted 5 times during the same period, although their defence has allowed only 1 goal. Qingdao are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, which increases the likelihood of a share of the points. However, away from home, the visitors lose 33% of their matches, concede an average of 1.75 goals and have a negative goal difference of -9, whereas Wuhan have a positive home goal difference of +2. The hosts’ superiority in chance creation, combined with Qingdao’s weaker away defence, points towards a narrow Wuhan Three Towns victory.

The seasonal BTTS rates of both teams are relatively high: Wuhan Three Towns record 62%, while Qingdao Youth Island stand at 58%, although both remain below the league average of 64%. The hosts score an average of 1.31 goals, whereas the visitors concede as many as 1.75 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 25% of games, clearly supporting a Wuhan goal. However, Qingdao have struggled for current attacking efficiency: across their last five matches, they have averaged 1.0 goals scored, conceded only 0.2, and BTTS landed in just 20% of those games. On the other hand, Wuhan allowed opponents a high xG of 1.78 over the same period, while Qingdao create an average of 1.21 xG, giving the visitors a realistic route to goal. The BTTS - Yes pick is only moderately strong, as Qingdao’s solid recent defence increases the risk that at least one team will fail to score.

Wuhan Three Towns score an average of 1.31 goals at home, while Qingdao Youth Island concede 1.75 goals away from home, giving the hosts a solid chance of scoring one or two goals. However, the visitors have limited offensive potential: they average 1.00 goals away from home, while Wuhan concede just 0.69 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches. The 3.5-goal line was covered in only 15% of Wuhan’s matches and 33% of Qingdao’s, while in their last five appearances, the visitors conceded just 1 goal in total. In addition, Qingdao have not played a single match above 2.5 goals during this five-game run, despite the league average being a high 3.12 goals. The projected total of 2.24 goals points to a match with a chance of two or three goals, but clearly favors the Under 3.5 goals bet.

Wuhan Three Towns have a clearly stronger home profile: they score an average of 1.31 goals and concede just 0.69, while Qingdao Youth Island allow opponents 1.75 goals on the road. The hosts led at the break in 38% of their matches and have never gone into half-time trailing, whereas the visitors were behind at half-time in 25% of games. Wuhan’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances, with their xG standing at 1.27 compared with Qingdao’s 1.70 xG conceded, while they also average 3.85 shots on target against 3.08 for their opponents. Although a half-time draw is a realistic possibility, given that the hosts were level at the break in 62% of matches, the most likely individual outcome remains a narrow Wuhan lead at half-time that they maintain until full-time. The second-half figures also support this scenario, with Qingdao conceding an average of 1.08 goals and Wuhan scoring 0.69.