Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC: match statistics

Cavalry FC, the league leaders, are clear favourites against the side sitting eighth: they have won 75% of their home matches and have yet to lose one, while Pacific FC have won just 8% of their away games. The hosts average 2.5 goals scored and 0.58 conceded at home, compared with 1.23 scored and as many as 2.54 conceded by the visitors on the road. Cavalry’s advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances: their home xG stands at 1.87, against Pacific’s away xG of 1.04, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.74 xG. The hosts’ recent results are less convincing, however—they have won just once in their last five matches and conceded 9 goals—so a draw remains a realistic possibility. Pacific have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded 14 goals over that spell, which, despite Cavalry’s own poor run, points towards a home win.

The case for BTTS - Yes is supported by the season-long rate of matches featuring goals from both teams: 69% for Cavalry FC and 62% for Pacific FC, compared with the league average of 63%. The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their matches and have conceded an average of 1.8 goals across their last five, giving the visitors a genuine chance of scoring. Pacific FC, meanwhile, have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match recently, while Cavalry FC have scored 2.4, making a home goal look particularly likely. Caution is warranted, however, as Pacific FC have failed to score in 38% of their matches, and both teams scored in only 40% of their games over the last five. Despite this risk, the defensive frailties of both sides give BTTS - Yes a slightly stronger basis than BTTS - No, which means at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0-0 draw.

At least 2 goals were scored in 77% of Cavalry FC matches and 92% of Pacific FC fixtures, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal in the data. The hosts have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, while the visitors have conceded 14 over the same period, which points to goals for Cavalry. Pacific concede an average of 2.54 goals per match, compared with 1.85 for Cavalry, so both defences give opponents opportunities. The higher line is supported by 80% of Cavalry’s last five matches featuring at least 3 goals, but their season-wide rate stands at 54%, making Over 2.5 a less certain pick. A total-goals forecast of 3.15 supports Over 1.5 while also warranting greater caution on higher lines.

The strongest signal points to Cavalry FC leading at the break and maintaining that advantage: in their last five matches, the hosts were ahead at half-time in 40% of games, while Pacific FC were trailing at that stage in 60%. Cavalry have recently averaged 2.4 goals per match, whereas Pacific have conceded 2.8, increasing the likelihood of a home lead. The difference after the break is just as clear: across their last five matches, Cavalry averaged 1.6 goals in the second half, while Pacific failed to score in that period. The 1/1 HT/FT pick nevertheless warrants caution, as Cavalry led at half-time in only 17% of matches across the season analysed. A half-time draw followed by a home win therefore remains a significant alternative.