Latvia - VirsligaZemgales Olimpiskā centraData current as of 01 September 2026

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

FS Jelgava play Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match date is 5 September 2026. Venue: Zemgales Olimpiskā centra.

Current form

FS Jelgava: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Super Nova: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.

Goal statistics

FS Jelgava scores 1.14 and concedes 1.68 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.04 and concedes 1.46. League average: 3.00 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: FS Jelgava 46%, Super Nova 62%. Over 2.5: FS Jelgava 43%, Super Nova 54%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 56%.

xG, shots and style

FS Jelgava has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.18. FS Jelgava: 11.3 shots per match, Super Nova: 9.1.

Match halves

FS Jelgava: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.57. Super Nova: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.50.

Goals by minute

FS Jelgava: 61-75 (7 goals). Super Nova: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Virsliga: 3.00 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 56%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 7 previous H2H matches were available: 4-3-0. Average goals 2.14, BTTS 57%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(-)
(-)
(-)

Pre-match profilewhat do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

FS JelgavaSuper Nova
1.14Goals scored / match1.04
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
1.68Goals conceded / match1.46
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
45%Average possession45%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
3.75Shots on target / match3.62
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

Team statswho is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

11.32Shots per match9.12
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
3.75Shots on target3.62
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
10.1%Shot conversion11.4%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
45%Possession45%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
1.38xG for1.18
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
1.77xG against1.74
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

Shooting quality

FS Jelgava: BalancedSuper Nova: Balanced
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
Accuracy (shots on target)33%40%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.120.13
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.300.29

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team formwho is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

FS Jelgava is 20% better for: last-5 form.

1.2 pts / match - FS Jelgava · 1 pts / match - Super Nova

FS Jelgava
LLLWW
Season result split
29% W25% R46% P
Season (W-D-L)
8-7-13
1.11 pts / match · goal difference -15
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-0-3
1.20 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
4-2-8
Last 5 at home
2-0-3
WWLLL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.74Opponent xG: 1.93BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%
Super Nova
LWLDD
Season result split
31% W19% R50% P
Season (W-D-L)
8-5-13
1.12 pts / match · goal difference -11
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-2-2
1.00 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
6-2-5
Last 5 away
1-2-2
LLDWD
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.0Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.42Opponent xG: 2.05BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%

Goalshow do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

FS Jelgava is 10% better for: goals scored per match.

1.14 goals / match - FS Jelgava · 1.04 goals / match - Super Nova

Super Nova is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.

1.68 goals / match - FS Jelgava · 1.46 goals / match - Super Nova

FS Jelgava scoring profile: strong

FS Jelgava scores in 57% of matches (16 of 28 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 23% (6 of 26 matches).

Super Nova scoring profile: very strong

Super Nova scores in 77% of matches (20 of 26 matches), while FS Jelgava keeps a clean sheet in 14% (4 of 28 matches).

32Goals scored (season)27
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
47Goals conceded (season)38
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
2.82Average goals in match2.5
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
8Goals scored (last 5)5
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
8Goals conceded (last 5)5
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

How often they score at least...

57%1 goal77%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
29%2 goals23%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
14%3 goals4%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
11%4 goals0%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

How often they concede at least...

86%1 goal77%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
36%2 goals46%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
18%3 goals12%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
11%4 goals8%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

55%
League average

Goal patterns

18%BTTS at half-time27%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
0%BTTS in both halves0%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
21%Scored in both halves8%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

BTTS and goal count

29%Min. 3 goals and BTTS50%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
14%Min. 3 goals without BTTS4%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
60%BTTS - last 560%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

Goal count (Over/Under)how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

82%Min. 1 goal before half-time62%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
32%Min. 2 goals before half-time42%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
14%Min. 3 goals before half-time19%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

2nd half

79%Min. 1 goal after half-time85%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
43%Min. 2 goals after half-time31%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
14%Min. 3 goals after half-time4%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

Match halveswhen do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

FS Jelgava is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.21 pts / match - FS Jelgava · 1.08 pts / match - Super Nova

FS Jelgava - half-time state
32% leading25% draw43% trailing
Super Nova - half-time state
19% leading50% draw31% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.21Points per match (1st half)1.08
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
0.57Goals scored (1st half)0.54
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
0.75Goals conceded (1st half)0.77
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
1.32Average goals (1st half)1.31
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
43%Clean sheet before half-time54%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
57%No goal before half-time58%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

After half-time (2nd half)

1.14Points per match (2nd half)1.23
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
0.57Goals scored (2nd half)0.5
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
0.93Goals conceded (2nd half)0.69
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
1.5Average goals (2nd half)1.19
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
46%Clean sheet after half-time50%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova
64%No goal after half-time58%
FS JelgavaSuper Nova

FS Jelgava - second-half results

29% W29% R43% P
34
Half-time points
16
Half-time goals
-5
Goal difference (1st half)
32
Second-half points
-10
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.21
PPG before half-time
Lead holding91%

Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.

Defence after half-time+0.2

Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Super Nova - second-half results

35% W19% R46% P
28
Half-time points
14
Half-time goals
-6
Goal difference (1st half)
32
Second-half points
-5
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.08
PPG before half-time
Lead holding163%

Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.1

Defence stays stable across the full match.

FS Jelgava - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match0.201.80
Goals scored / match0.41.2
Goals conceded / match1.40.2
Average goals in match1.81.4
1 goal100%60%
2 goals60%60%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet0%80%
No goal60%40%
Goal difference-5+5
Half-time: 0% leading - 20% draw - 80% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 60% draw - 0% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 2
Super Nova - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.201.40
Goals scored / match0.20.8
Goals conceded / match0.20.8
Average goals in match0.41.6
1 goal40%80%
2 goals0%60%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet80%60%
No goal80%40%
Goal difference00
Half-time: 20% leading - 60% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 20% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 1

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minutewhen do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

FS Jelgava
ScoredConceded
6
8
0-15
5
8
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
7
46-60
7
6
61-75
6
13
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.

Super Nova
ScoredConceded
3
2
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
12
31-45
5
7
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
8
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicatorswhat do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.66
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.3 : 1.4
Estimated goal split
home : away
89%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
54%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-20%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
44%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
10%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 10 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

FS Jelgava

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.39
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.15
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+4.4 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.24
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.09
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
67%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
129%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.09
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
19% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 19% come in the first quarter-hour.
19%

Super Nova

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.56
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.14
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+2.8 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.14
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.28
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
80%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
86%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
-0.12
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.0
Late goals
26% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 11% come in the first quarter-hour.
26%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League contextis this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).

Teams vs league

FS JelgavaLigaSuper Nova
Average goals in match 2.823.00 2.50
Both teams scored 46%55% 62%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) 43%56% 54%
Clean sheets 14%24% 23%
Goal before half-time 82%76% 62%
Goal after half-time 79%82% 85%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.00
Average goals per match
55%
Both teams scored
56%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
24%
Clean sheets
1.70
Home goals / match
1.30
Away goals / match
+31%
Home attack advantage
+24%
Home defence advantage
+7%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
76%
1 goal
42%
2 goals
18%
3 goals
4%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
82%
1 goal
48%
2 goals
18%
3 goals
7%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Recent meetings (7): FS Jelgava 4 - 3 - 0 Super Nova. Average goals 2.14, both teams scored in 57% matches.

Super Nova
1 : 5
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
1 : 0
Super Nova
Super Nova
1 : 1
FS Jelgava
SK Super Nova
1 : 1
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
1 : 0
SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova
0 : 0
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
2 : 1
SK Super Nova

FAQ

When do FS Jelgava and Super Nova play?

FS Jelgava face Super Nova on 5 September 2026 in Virsliga at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between FS Jelgava and Super Nova?

In the last 7 head-to-head matches FS Jelgava won 4, Super Nova won 0 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.14 goals, with both teams scoring in 57% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?

FS Jelgava score 1.14 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.04. The Virsliga average is 3.00 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 46% of FS Jelgava's matches and 62% of Super Nova's.

What form are FS Jelgava and Super Nova in?

Over the last 5 games FS Jelgava have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Super Nova 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.