Gorica vs Varaždin: match statistics
Gorica vs Varaždin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Gorica played Varaždin in Prva HNL (Croatia). The match was played on 14 September 2026. Venue: ŠRC Velika Gorica. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Gorica: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Varaždin: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Gorica scores 0.33 and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Varaždin scores 1.83 and concedes 0.83. League average: 3.21 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Gorica 33%, Varaždin 50%. Over 2.5: Gorica 33%, Varaždin 50%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Varaždin has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.13. Gorica: 9.3 shots per match, Varaždin: 13.5.
Match halves
Gorica: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.33. Varaždin: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Gorica: 46-60 (1 goals). Varaždin: 16-30 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prva HNL: 3.21 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-2. Average goals 2.75, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Varaždin sit 3rd and have won 4 of their 6 matches this season, while Gorica are tenth, still without a win after 6 rounds (1 draw and 5 defeats). The visitors are also significantly more efficient: they have scored 11 goals, including 9 in their last five matches, compared with just 4 goals for Gorica over the same period. Away from home, Varaždin average 15 shots and 4.5 shots on target per match, whereas the hosts manage just 6.33 shots at home, average 0.33 goals and have failed to score in 67% of such fixtures. The difference in chance quality is confirmed by xG: Gorica generate 0.84 at home and concede 1.94, while Varaždin have an away xG of 1.55. The visitors’ away defence is not flawless, conceding an average of 2 goals, but a run of 3 wins in their last 5 matches and their superior attacking strength point to a Varaždin victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A scenario in which one of the teams fails to score is slightly more likely, mainly due to Gorica’s very solid home defense: they concede an average of just 0.25 goals and keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches. Varaždin does have a high average of 2.5 goals in away games, but BTTS landed in only 20% of their last five matches, while the team conceded just 0.6 goals per game during that period. In their last five appearances, Gorica averaged 0.8 goals scored from an xG of 0.99, increasing the risk that they will fail to convert their chances despite the opponents’ weak away defense, which concedes 2.0 goals per game across the season. Varaždin’s full-season 100% BTTS record contrasts with their current form, while Gorica’s BTTS rate stands at just 25% in home matches and 40% across their last five games. The most realistic outcomes are therefore those in which only one side finds the net, particularly 0:1 or 0:2.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal points to at least two goals: Varaždin averaged 2.5 goals away from home, with a minimum of 2 goals scored in 100% of those matches. The hosts are defensively solid at home, conceding just 0.25 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 75% of their appearances, although their last five matches produced 1.2 goals conceded per game. The visitors’ attacking potential is confirmed by an average xG of 1.60 across their last five matches, while Gorica allowed opponents an xG of 1.60 during this period. Caution regarding higher lines is warranted, as Over 2.5 landed in only 40% of the teams’ last five matches. The projected total of 2.55 goals gives the Over 1.5 option a clearer edge than the riskier Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Varaždin are in clearly better current form: they have averaged 2.0 points over their last five matches, compared with just 0.8 for Gorica, while their respective win rates stand at 60% and 20%. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the visitors were leading at the break in 60% of their last five games, whereas Gorica were trailing after 45 minutes in as many as 80% of them and failed to score a single goal during that period. Varaždin have not conceded before half-time in any of those five matches, while averaging 0.8 goals scored, which strongly supports the scenario of an away lead at the break. Although the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their home matches this season, their recent average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game is clearly inferior to their opponent's current form. After the break, Varaždin have averaged 1.0 goal in their last five appearances, so the most likely outcome remains that they will maintain their advantage until the final whistle.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Gorica | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.13 | 0.48 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Varaždin is 900% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Gorica · 2 pts / match - Varaždin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varaždin is 455% better for: goals scored per match.
0.33 goals / match - Gorica · 1.83 goals / match - Varaždin
Varaždin is 101% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.67 goals / match - Gorica · 0.83 goals / match - Varaždin
Gorica scores in 33% of matches (2 of 6 matches), while Varaždin keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
Varaždin scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Gorica keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gorica
Over / Under - Varaždin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Varaždin is 1076% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.17 pts / match - Gorica · 2 pts / match - Varaždin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gorica - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Varaždin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -6 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +6 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (1 goal). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Gorica
Varaždin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Gorica | Liga | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 3.21 | ▼ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 52% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 64% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 27% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 79% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 33% | 79% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- VaraždinGoalValentin Akrap
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Gorica 0 - 2 - 2 Varaždin. Average goals 2.75, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Gorica vs Varaždin?
The Prva HNL match finished Gorica 2:2 Varaždin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Gorica and Varaždin?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Gorica won 0, Varaždin won 2 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Gorica vs Varaždin?
Gorica score 0.33 goals per game on average and Varaždin 1.83. The Prva HNL average is 3.21 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Gorica's matches and 50% of Varaždin's.
What form are Gorica and Varaždin in?
Over the last 5 games Gorica have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Varaždin 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gorica vs Varaždin?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.