Libertad vs Guaraní: match statistics
Libertad vs Guaraní: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Libertad played Guaraní in Division Profesional (Paraguay). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Libertad: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Guaraní: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Libertad scores 1.57 and concedes 1.14 goals per match. Guaraní scores 1.17 and concedes 0.94. League average: 2.44 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Libertad 49%, Guaraní 49%. Over 2.5: Libertad 49%, Guaraní 34%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Libertad has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.30. Libertad: 14.6 shots per match, Guaraní: 11.6.
Match halves
Libertad: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.91. Guaraní: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Libertad: 46-60 (12 goals). Guaraní: 76-90+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Division Profesional: 2.44 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 7 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-4. Average goals 3.14, BTTS 57%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Libertad win 59% of their home matches and score an average of 1.82 goals in them, while Guaraní win 24% of their away games and average 0.94 goals. The hosts also create more chances: their home xG is 1.64, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.21, while they average 5.53 shots on target per match against Guaraní’s 3.41. However, Guaraní are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and conceding just two goals; Libertad have won twice over the same period and conceded four. In addition, the visitors keep a clean sheet in 53% of their away games and draw 53% of them, so their defensive record significantly increases the likelihood of a share of the points. Despite this, Libertad’s advantage in finishing and chance quality at home points to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest case for BTTS - No is Guaraní’s defense: the visitors kept a clean sheet in 53% of their matches and conceded an average of just 0.4 goals across their last 5 games. Libertad score an average of 1.39 goals from an xG of 1.39, so they could breach that defense; however, Guaraní failed to score in 35% of their matches and averaged just 0.94 goals. The historical BTTS rate is 56% for Libertad and 41% for Guaraní, offering no clear indication that both teams will score. In their last 5 matches, the teams recorded BTTS in 60% and 40% of games respectively, while Guaraní conceded just 2 goals over that period. Therefore, it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 78% of Libertad matches and 82% of Guaraní matches. Both teams concede no more than one goal per match on average this season—Libertad 1.00 and Guaraní 0.88—which limits the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Libertad’s last five matches averaged 2.0 goals, while Guaraní’s averaged 1.6; Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% and 0% of those matches, respectively. Although average attacking xG stands at 1.39 for the hosts and 1.21 for the visitors, Guaraní’s season average is just 0.94 goals scored, bringing the projected total to 2.15 goals. The 3.5 line offers more margin than 2.5, with clear support from both season-long data and recent results.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Guaraní went into the break level in 65% of their matches, and this result occurred in 60% of the teams’ last five games. The first halves also look evenly matched in terms of goals, with Libertad averaging 0.50 goals and Guaraní 0.41. The visitors’ defence favours the draw holding: they kept a clean sheet in 53% of their matches and conceded an average of just 0.40 goals per game across their last five. Libertad did win 44% of their matches and averaged 1.39 goals compared with Guaraní’s 0.94, but the visitors drew as many as 53% of their games and averaged 2.2 points across their last five, compared with the hosts’ 1.6. Therefore, the X/X scenario has a slight edge over a Libertad win after a goalless or level first half.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Libertad | Guaraní | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Guaraní is 10% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Libertad · 2.2 pts / match - Guaraní
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Libertad is 34% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Libertad · 1.17 goals / match - Guaraní
Guaraní is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.14 goals / match - Libertad · 0.94 goals / match - Guaraní
Libertad scores in 74% of matches (26 of 35 matches), while Guaraní keeps a clean sheet in 40% (14 of 35 matches).
Guaraní scores in 71% of matches (25 of 35 matches), while Libertad keeps a clean sheet in 29% (10 of 35 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Libertad
Over / Under - Guaraní
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Libertad - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 49%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Guaraní - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Libertad
Guaraní
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Division Profesional).
Teams vs league
| Libertad | Liga | Guaraní | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.44 | ▼ 2.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 49% | 52% | ▼ 49% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 49% | 45% | ▼ 34% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 28% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | • 66% | 66% | ▼ 57% |
| Goal after half-time | • 80% | 81% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (7): Libertad 2 - 1 - 4 Guaraní. Average goals 3.14, both teams scored in 57% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Libertad vs Guaraní?
The Division Profesional match finished Libertad 2:2 Guaraní. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Libertad and Guaraní?
In the last 7 head-to-head matches Libertad won 2, Guaraní won 4 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.14 goals, with both teams scoring in 57% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Libertad vs Guaraní?
Libertad score 1.57 goals per game on average and Guaraní 1.17. The Division Profesional average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 49% of Libertad's matches and 49% of Guaraní's.
What form are Libertad and Guaraní in?
Over the last 5 games Libertad have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Guaraní 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Libertad vs Guaraní?
The statistical background for Libertad vs Guaraní — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.