Ogre United vs Super Nova: match statistics
Ogre United vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ogre United played Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 20 September 2026. Venue: Salaspils sporta nama stadions. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Ogre United: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Super Nova: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ogre United scores 0.97 and concedes 2.53 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.00 and concedes 1.34. League average: 2.87 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ogre United 63%, Super Nova 55%. Over 2.5: Ogre United 67%, Super Nova 48%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. Ogre United: 10.4 shots per match, Super Nova: 9.2.
Match halves
Ogre United: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.50. Super Nova: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
Ogre United: 46-60 (7 goals). Super Nova: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.87 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 3.33, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Super Nova come into this match in significantly better form: they have collected 8 points from their last 5 matches, winning twice and losing just once, while Ogre United have recorded 4 defeats and only 1 draw. The hosts have a very weak defensive record at home, conceding an average of 2.14 goals with opponents registering 2.10 xG, and have kept no clean sheets. Super Nova allow opponents an average of just 1.00 goals away from home, with 36% of such matches ending without conceding; moreover, they have conceded just 2 goals in their last five matches. The visitors win 50% of their away matches, whereas Ogre United win at home in only 7% of cases and have a negative goal difference of -14. Super Nova's attack has not been particularly effective lately, scoring 3 goals in their last five appearances, but their superior defensive organisation and the hosts' clearly weaker run of form point towards an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Ogre United have a high seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, but Super Nova have recorded this outcome in only 43% of their matches, and in just 20% of their last 5 games. The visitors are currently very solid defensively: they have conceded only 2 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 0.4 per match, and have kept a clean sheet in 36% of the season overall. Ogre’s attack averages 1.0 goal per match, rising to 1.2 across their last five fixtures, which does not provide a strong argument against the opponent’s defence. On the other hand, the hosts have recently conceded as many as 2.6 goals per match, with an xG against of 2.16, giving Super Nova a realistic chance of scoring. However, the key risk to BTTS remains the visitors’ poor finishing, as they have scored only 3 goals in their last five matches. Therefore, it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score, supporting BTTS - No / No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: Super Nova have stayed below this line in every match this season, while Ogre United have gone over it in only 20% of their games. Both teams average 1.0 goal per match, and their attacking xG averages stand at 1.15 and 1.22 respectively, suggesting a scoreline closer to two than four goals. Super Nova have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their matches and conceded just 2 goals in their last five league games, despite an opposition xG of 1.69. Ogre United have a very poor defensive run, conceding 2.6 goals per game across their last five appearances, but the visitors have scored only 0.6 goals per match during that period. The match is projected to produce 2.35 goals, giving Under 3.5 a clear edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time followed by a Super Nova victory is the most likely outcome, as both teams frequently go into the break level: Ogre United in 53% of matches and Super Nova in 57%. The visitors have been particularly cautious before the break in their recent form, drawing the first half in 4 of their last 5 matches and failing to score a single goal during that period. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards Super Nova: across their last five appearances, they have averaged 0.6 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded after half-time, while Ogre United have conceded as many as 2.0 goals. The difference is also reflected in full-match form: the hosts have collected just 0.2 points per match over their last five league fixtures and conceded an average of 2.6 goals, whereas the visitors have recorded 1.6 points and conceded just 0.4 goals. Super Nova also has a clearly superior season-long record, averaging 1.64 points per match compared with Ogre United’s 0.8, further strengthening the X/2 scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ogre United | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Super Nova is 700% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Ogre United · 1.6 pts / match - Super Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Super Nova is 89% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.53 goals / match - Ogre United · 1.34 goals / match - Super Nova
Ogre United scores in 67% of matches (20 of 30 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 28% (8 of 29 matches).
Super Nova scores in 76% of matches (22 of 29 matches), while Ogre United keeps a clean sheet in 3% (1 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ogre United
Over / Under - Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Super Nova is 34% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.8 pts / match - Ogre United · 1.07 pts / match - Super Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ogre United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 10%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (23). Late-goal balance (76-90): -17 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ogre United
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Ogre United | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.50 | 2.87 | ▼ 2.34 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 54% | • 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 54% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 3% | 26% | ▲ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 73% | ▼ 55% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 81% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Ogre United 1 - 0 - 2 Super Nova. Average goals 3.33, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ogre United vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished Ogre United 1:0 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ogre United and Super Nova?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Ogre United won 1, Super Nova won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ogre United vs Super Nova?
Ogre United score 0.97 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.00. The Virsliga average is 2.87 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Ogre United's matches and 55% of Super Nova's.
What form are Ogre United and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Ogre United have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Super Nova 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ogre United vs Super Nova?
The statistical background for Ogre United vs Super Nova — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.