Penybont vs Colwyn Bay: match statistics

Penybont remain unbeaten after six matches this season, recording 3 wins and 3 draws, while collecting 11 points from their last five fixtures. Over the same period, Colwyn Bay have won just 2 of 5 matches and conceded as many as 10 goals, which stands in stark contrast to the 5 goals conceded by the hosts across the entire campaign. At home, Penybont concede an average of just 0.67 goals per match, whereas Colwyn Bay allow opponents 3.33 goals per game away from home and have kept no clean sheets. The hosts do not possess a particularly high attacking ceiling, with an average home xG of 1.10, but the visitors’ defence allows an xG of 1.50, which should give Penybont favourable conditions to find the net. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Penybont have drawn 67% of their home matches; however, Colwyn Bay’s poor away defensive record points towards a home win.

Penybont has a very strong defensive signal at home: they have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, while Colwyn Bay average just 1.00 goal scored away from home. The visitors have failed to score in 33% of their away matches, while the hosts allow opponents an average xG of just 1.05. Penybont should also have good chances of scoring themselves, as they average 1.67 goals per home game, while Colwyn Bay concede as many as 3.33 goals away from home. However, the current form of the hosts supports a BTTS - Yes scenario, with BTTS landing in 80% of their last five matches, while the visitors' xG over this period stands at 1.43. Despite this, Penybont's defensive advantage at home and Colwyn Bay's inconsistent finishing make the outcome in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

Penybont average 1.67 goals at home, while Colwyn Bay concede as many as 3.33 goals per away match, which clearly strengthens the case for at least two goals. The hosts create an average of 1.52 xG and record 4.00 shots on target per match, while the visitors’ defence allows an average of 1.50 xG. In their last five matches, Penybonnt scored 10 goals, while Colwyn Bay conceded 10, with the matches of both teams going Over 2.5 goals in 80% and 60% of cases, respectively. The visitors have the potential to score once, as their average xG stands at 1.36, but the hosts’ very solid defence, conceding 0.00 goals at home, limits their projection to 0.80 goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of Penybonnt’s significant attacking advantage and Colwyn Bay’s weak defence gives a very high probability of at least two goals.

Penybont have won all three of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 1.67 goals and keeping a clean sheet in each, while Colwyn Bay concede as many as 3.33 goals per away game. The hosts led at the break in all three of those fixtures, scoring an average of 1.33 first-half goals without conceding, whereas the visitors were trailing at half-time in two of their three away matches. Penybont’s superiority is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.52, with opponents limited to 1.05 xG, while Colwyn Bay allow an average of 1.50 xG. Penybont are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and two draws, while Colwyn Bay have lost two of their five games. The most likely scenario is therefore for the hosts to take the lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle — an HT/FT 1/1 outcome.