Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline Athletic: match statistics

Raith Rovers hold a slight edge thanks to their effectiveness at home: they average 1.5 goals per match, while Dunfermline Athletic score just 0.71 goals away from home. The quality of the chances created is almost identical — average xG stands at 1.65 and 1.67 respectively — but the hosts are more clinical, converting 12% of their shots compared with the visitors’ 5%. Both defences look solid: Raith concede an average of 0.83 goals at home, while Dunfermline concede 0.57 away. The visitors have avoided defeat in each of their last 5 matches and conceded just 2 goals across that run, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. However, the hosts’ greater finishing efficiency, despite creating a similar number of chances, tips the prediction slightly in their favour.

BTTS occurred in 50% of Raith Rovers’ matches and just 29% of Dunfermline Athletic’s, supporting a BTTS - No pick. The hosts concede an average of 0.50 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games, while the visitors score just 0.71 goals on average. Dunfermline do generate an xG of 1.67, but convert only 5% of their shots into goals, meaning their scoring return does not reflect the number of chances they create. Both teams recorded BTTS in 40% of their last five matches, but Raith’s solid defence and the visitors’ low conversion rate make it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in any of Dunfermline’s away matches to date or in 83% of Raith’s home games. Both defences concede relatively few goals on average in these conditions, at 0.50 and 0.57 respectively, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The visitors average 0.71 goals scored away from home, although their xG stands at 1.67, so their attacking potential should not be entirely discounted. Across their last five matches, the teams averaged 1.8 and 1.6 goals respectively, but Over 2.5 goals landed in only 40% and 20% of those games. The projected total of 2.00 goals accounts for this improvement in form while indicating that the 3.5 line offers a greater margin of safety than 2.5.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: it occurred in 67% of Raith Rovers’ home matches and 71% of Dunfermline Athletic’s away matches. The visitors average just 0.14 goals scored in first halves, but also concede only 0.14, pointing to a closely contested start. The hosts’ advantage is clearer after the break: they average 1.00 goal and have yet to concede in second halves at home, while the visitors concede an average of 0.43 goals away in that period. Across full matches, Raith Rovers average 1.67 goals at home compared with Dunfermline’s 0.71 away, so the pick is a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1). The risk of the draw holding remains significant, as the hosts have drawn 50% of their home matches and the visitors 43% of their away matches.