Riga vs BFC Daugavpils: match statistics

Riga are exceptionally strong at home: they have won 86% of their matches, remain unbeaten there and average 3.07 goals per game. The hosts create significantly more chances than BFC Daugavpils do away from home, recording 18.5 shots, 6.21 shots on target and an xG of 2.13 compared with the visitors’ 13.15 shots, 4.54 shots on target and xG of 1.56. The defensive difference is also significant, as Riga concede just 0.79 goals per home match, while Daugavpils concede an average of 1.62 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in only 15% of matches. The visitors have tightened up defensively in their last five outings, conceding 4 goals, but their away record includes just 15% wins and 46% defeats. Both teams have collected 8 points in their last five matches, but Riga’s superior home performance should be decisive in securing victory for the hosts.

BTTS across the season has been highly contrasting: Riga has recorded it in 33% of matches, while BFC Daugavpils has done so in as many as 69%, compared with the league average of 55%. Recent form strengthens the scenario of goals at both ends, as Riga had BTTS in 80% of its last 5 matches, scoring 2.0 goals and conceding 1.8 per game. Daugavpils has recently averaged 1.4 goals per match, while its average xG over the last five rounds stands at a solid 1.76, with 1.18 xG conceded to opponents. Riga kept a clean sheet in 40% of its matches this season, but conceded 9 goals in its last five games, significantly increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. The hosts should, in turn, be able to exploit Daugavpils’ defence, which concedes an average of 1.62 goals per game this season and keeps a clean sheet in only 15% of matches. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the more likely outcome.

The strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as this outcome occurred in 80% of Riga’s matches and 62% of BFC Daugavpils’ games throughout the season. Riga concedes only 0.73 goals per match at home and has kept a clean sheet in 40% of its outings, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. Although both teams’ average xG figures are relatively high—1.63 for Riga and 1.56 for Daugavpils—shot conversion rates stand at just 8% and 9%, respectively, keeping the projection at 2.50 goals. Riga’s last five matches did produce Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases, but Daugavpils conceded only 0.8 goals per game over the same period. The 3.5 line therefore provides a clear buffer against the expected 1:1 or 2:1 scenario.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Riga victory at full-time, as both teams very often draw the first half: Riga in 53% of matches and Daugavpils in 54%, while the visitors have drawn at the break in as many as 80% of their last five games. The opening phase also looks cautious statistically: Riga scores an average of 0.47 goals before half-time and concedes just 0.13, while Daugavpils scores 0.23 goals. After the break, however, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as Daugavpils concedes an average of 1.15 goals in second halves, while Riga scores 0.67. Over the course of the season, Riga wins 53% of its matches and averages 1.73 points per game, compared with just a 15% win rate and 0.85 points per game for Daugavpils. In addition, the visitors keep a clean sheet in only 15% of matches, increasing the likelihood of Riga scoring the decisive goal after half-time.