Shelbourne vs Derry City: match statistics

Shelbourne are in poor recent form: they have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 8. Derry City have been clearly more effective over the short term, winning 3 of their last 5 games and scoring 14 goals in the process, but they have won only 7% of their away matches. The hosts create more chances at home, averaging 14.21 shots and an xG of 1.58, compared with Derry City’s 10.64 shots and xG of 1.30 away from home. Neither defence looks reliable, with Shelbourne conceding an average of 1.71 goals at home and the visitors 1.50, while Derry City draw as many as 50% of their away matches. The combination of the visitors’ strong current form, their very low away win rate and the hosts’ advantage in chance creation most strongly supports a draw.

The “Yes” pick is supported by a high seasonal BTTS frequency: 60% in Shelbourne matches and 71% in Derry City fixtures, compared with the league average of 60%. Both teams recorded BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, or 80% each, while Derry City scored an average of 2.8 goals and conceded 2.2 during this period. Shelbourne have managed just 1.0 goals scored across their last five appearances, but the visitors’ defence kept a clean sheet in only 14% of matches and typically allowed opponents an xG of 1.68. The hosts have also created solid chances throughout the season, recording an xG of 1.90 and 5.93 shots on target per match, while their defence allowed opponents an xG of 2.05 across the last five fixtures. These figures indicate a genuine chance of goals at both ends, although greater instability in Shelbourne’s attack limits confidence in the prediction.

The strongest signal is on Over 1.5, as at least 2 goals were scored in 73% of Shelbourne’s matches and 71% of Derry City’s games. Derry City are in excellent attacking form, scoring 14 goals in their last 5 matches—an average of 2.8 per game—while Shelbourne conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period. However, the hosts have a solid basis for responding, with a season xG of 1.90, while Derry City allow an average of 1.68 xG away from home and concede 1.50 goals per match. Over 2.5 landed in 60% and 80% of the teams’ last five matches, respectively, but the season-long percentage for this line is closer to 50%, which is why Over 2.5 offers a smaller edge than the safer Over 1.5. The projected total of 2.97 goals points to an open game, but Under 3.5 remains more frequent, supported by the fact that it has landed in 60% of Shelbourne’s and 79% of Derry City’s matches this season.

Derry City are showing clearly superior current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.8 goals per game, while Shelbourne have failed to win any of their matches, scoring just 1.0 goal per game. The signal for an away advantage from the outset is strong, as Derry were leading at the break in 3 of their last 5 appearances, whereas Shelbourne went into half-time trailing on as many as 3 occasions during the same period. Over the course of the season, the hosts have stronger underlying metrics, including an xG of 1.90 compared with 1.30, but their recent defence has conceded an average of 1.6 goals, while Derry score 1.4 goals per game after half-time. The visitors have also won 60% of their recent matches, making the HT/FT scenario of Derry leading at half-time and securing the victory the most likely outcome.