Super Nova vs Grobiņa: match statistics

Super Nova hold the advantage in the season record, with 10 wins in 30 matches compared to Grobiņa’s 5 in 31. However, the hosts have won only 20% of their home games, so they are not clear favourites. Their attacking efficiency makes a case for a home win: they average 1 goal per game at home from 1.15 xG, while the visitors score just 0.56 goals away from home despite 1.20 xG and fail to score in 44% of their matches. Both defences give opponents opportunities — Super Nova concede an average of 1.67 goals at home, while Grobiņa concede 2.06 away — but the hosts have conceded 3 goals in their last five matches, compared to 5 for the visitors. This difference in finishing, together with Grobiņa’s away record of just 13% wins, points to the hosts, although the visitors’ 31% away draw rate leaves a genuine possibility of the points being shared.

BTTS occurred in 33% of Super Nova’s matches and 44% of Grobiņa’s, both below the league average of 54%. The biggest obstacle to both teams scoring is their poor finishing: the hosts average 0.8 goals per match, while the visitors average just 0.56, and they failed to score in 53% and 44% of their matches, respectively. Despite Grobiņa conceding an average of 2.06 goals per match, Super Nova have scored only 0.6 goals per game across their last five appearances; the visitors recorded the same attacking average over that period. BTTS landed in 20% and 40% of those five-match samples, respectively, strengthening the case for BTTS - No: at least one team may fail to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 73% of Super Nova matches and 75% of Grobiņa matches. Both teams score sparingly, averaging 0.80 and 0.56 goals per match, respectively, and each has averaged 0.60 goals per match over their last five games. The visitors’ weaker defense, conceding an average of 2.06 goals, increases the hosts’ chances of scoring, but does not necessarily point to a game with at least four goals. The projections of 1.35 goals for Super Nova and 0.80 for Grobiņa add up to 2.15, making the 3.5 line a safer cushion than the 2.5 line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: both teams were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, and Super Nova did not score a single first-half goal in those games. After the break, the advantage should shift to the home side, who won the second half in 60% of their last 5 matches, while Grobiņa lost it just as often. Super Nova averaged 0.6 goals after the break over this period, while Grobiņa conceded 0.8; across the season, the visitors have conceded as many as 1.25 goals per match in the second half. The X/1 HT/FT pick is therefore best supported by the combination of frequent draws at the break and the home side’s stronger performances after the restart. However, the risk of the match remaining level is still considerable, as Super Nova average only 0.8 goals per match overall and draw 40% of their games.