Tallinna FC Levadia vs Paide: match statistics

League leaders Tallinna FC Levadia have won 22 of their 29 league matches, while third-placed Paide have 15 wins from the same number of games. The hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding just 1; Paide have won 3 times in that span, scoring 8 and conceding 5. At home, Levadia average 3.29 goals scored and 0.50 conceded, while Paide average 1.87 goals scored and 1.47 conceded away. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances: their home xG stands at 2.29, compared with the 1.61 xG Paide concede away. The visitors can pose a threat, but Levadia’s 64% home clean-sheet rate and Paide’s away clean-sheet rate of just 13% point to a home win.

Across the season, both teams scored in 50% of Levadia’s matches and 80% of Paide’s, pointing towards goals at both ends. However, over their last 5 matches, those figures fell to 20% and 40% respectively, while Levadia conceded just 1 goal in that period, averaging 0.2 per match. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 36% of their league matches, compared with 13% for Paide, increasing the risk that the visitors fail to score. Paide do average 1.87 goals, though, and their xG over the last 5 matches stands at 2.03, so the edge for BTTS - No is slight. Levadia’s recent defensive form remains the strongest indicator, suggesting that at least one team could fail to score.

Levadia average 1.43 goals at home, while Paide concede 1.47 away, giving the hosts a solid platform to score. However, Levadia have scored as many as 3.4 goals per match across their last 5 games, with an average xG of 2.31, so their current attacking form looks stronger than their season average. Paide average 1.87 goals away, although caution is warranted given that Levadia have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 64% of Levadia’s home matches and 87% of Paide’s away games, while the figures for Over 2.5 were 43% and 60%, respectively. Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest pick: a projection of 2.95 goals gives it a greater edge than the higher lines, without requiring both teams to score.

The strongest signal points to Levadia leading at the break: in their last five matches, the hosts were ahead at half-time four times, scoring an average of 1.8 goals before the break and conceding none. Over the season as a whole, they have also led at half-time more often than Paide—43% of matches compared with 27%—although a draw at this stage remains a realistic possibility, with the respective rates standing at 43% and 53%. Levadia’s current form supports the prospect of maintaining their advantage to the final whistle: they have won four of their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.4 goals, while Paide have won three and averaged 1.6 goals. The hosts also scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded 0.2 in the second halves of those matches, increasing the likelihood of them protecting a lead. Paide remain a threat, having averaged 1.87 goals across the season compared with Levadia’s 1.43; however, the hosts’ edge in recent results and first-half performances makes a Levadia HT/FT win the most likely scenario.