Estonia - MeistriliigaPärnu RannastaadionData current as of 24 October 2026

Vaprus vs Kuressaare: match statistics

Reasoning:

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Vaprus vs Kuressaare: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Vaprus play Kuressaare in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match date is 28 October 2026. Venue: Pärnu Rannastaadion.

Current form

Vaprus: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Kuressaare: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.

Goal statistics

Vaprus scores 1.33 and concedes 2.06 goals per match. Kuressaare scores 1.06 and concedes 1.59. League average: 3.13 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Vaprus 67%, Kuressaare 47%. Over 2.5: Vaprus 67%, Kuressaare 53%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 64%.

xG, shots and style

Kuressaare has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.24. Vaprus: 9.5 shots per match, Kuressaare: 11.6.

Match halves

Vaprus: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.70. Kuressaare: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.53.

Goals by minute

Vaprus: 46-60 (9 goals). Kuressaare: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Meistriliiga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 64%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 7 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-3. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 43%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(2.35)
(3.44)
(2.49)

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.33Goals scored / match1.06
VaprusKuressaare
2.06Goals conceded / match1.59
VaprusKuressaare
46%Average possession40%
VaprusKuressaare
3.76Shots on target / match4.16
VaprusKuressaare

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

9.52Shots per match11.63
VaprusKuressaare
3.76Shots on target4.16
VaprusKuressaare
14%Shot conversion9.1%
VaprusKuressaare
46%Possession40%
VaprusKuressaare
1.24xG for1.45
VaprusKuressaare
2.02xG against1.97
VaprusKuressaare

Shooting quality

Vaprus: Counter-attackingKuressaare: Balanced
VaprusKuressaare
Accuracy (shots on target)39%36%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.130.12
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.350.25

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Kuressaare is 250% better for: last-5 form.

0.4 pts / match - Vaprus · 1.4 pts / match - Kuressaare

Vaprus
LDDLL
No win in the last 5 matches
Season result split
27% W18% D55% L
Season (W-D-L)
9-6-18
1.00 pts / match · goal difference -24
Last 5 (W-D-L)
0-2-3
0.40 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
6-4-6
Last 5 at home
1-2-2
LWLDD
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 2.6xG: 1.48Opponent xG: 1.97BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 80%
Kuressaare
LDWWL
Season result split
31% W16% D53% L
Season (W-D-L)
10-5-17
1.09 pts / match · goal difference -17
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
4-2-10
Last 5 away
2-1-2
WLLDW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 0.8Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.10Opponent xG: 1.68BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 20%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Vaprus is 25% better for: goals scored per match.

1.33 goals / match - Vaprus · 1.06 goals / match - Kuressaare

Kuressaare is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.

2.06 goals / match - Vaprus · 1.59 goals / match - Kuressaare

Vaprus scoring profile: very strong

Vaprus scores in 79% of matches (26 of 33 matches), while Kuressaare keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 matches).

Kuressaare scoring profile: strong

Kuressaare scores in 53% of matches (17 of 32 matches), while Vaprus keeps a clean sheet in 18% (6 of 33 matches).

44Goals scored (season)34
VaprusKuressaare
68Goals conceded (season)51
VaprusKuressaare
3.39Average goals in match2.66
VaprusKuressaare
8Goals scored (last 5)4
VaprusKuressaare
13Goals conceded (last 5)5
VaprusKuressaare

How often they score at least...

79%1 goal53%
VaprusKuressaare
39%2 goals34%
VaprusKuressaare
9%3 goals19%
VaprusKuressaare
3%4 goals0%
VaprusKuressaare

How often they concede at least...

82%1 goal84%
VaprusKuressaare
67%2 goals53%
VaprusKuressaare
30%3 goals16%
VaprusKuressaare
12%4 goals6%
VaprusKuressaare

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

57%
League average

Goal patterns

33%BTTS at half-time16%
VaprusKuressaare
9%BTTS in both halves3%
VaprusKuressaare
30%Scored in both halves22%
VaprusKuressaare

BTTS and goal count

64%Min. 3 goals and BTTS44%
VaprusKuressaare
3%Min. 3 goals without BTTS9%
VaprusKuressaare
80%BTTS - last 520%
VaprusKuressaare

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

76%Min. 1 goal before half-time72%
VaprusKuressaare
48%Min. 2 goals before half-time31%
VaprusKuressaare
18%Min. 3 goals before half-time9%
VaprusKuressaare

2nd half

91%Min. 1 goal after half-time81%
VaprusKuressaare
48%Min. 2 goals after half-time41%
VaprusKuressaare
24%Min. 3 goals after half-time13%
VaprusKuressaare

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Vaprus is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.15 pts / match - Vaprus · 1.09 pts / match - Kuressaare

Vaprus - half-time state
24% leading42% draw33% trailing
Kuressaare - half-time state
25% leading34% draw41% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.15Points per match (1st half)1.09
VaprusKuressaare
0.64Goals scored (1st half)0.53
VaprusKuressaare
0.88Goals conceded (1st half)0.63
VaprusKuressaare
1.52Average goals (1st half)1.16
VaprusKuressaare
45%Clean sheet before half-time50%
VaprusKuressaare
45%No goal before half-time63%
VaprusKuressaare

After half-time (2nd half)

1.03Points per match (2nd half)0.84
VaprusKuressaare
0.7Goals scored (2nd half)0.53
VaprusKuressaare
1.18Goals conceded (2nd half)0.97
VaprusKuressaare
1.88Average goals (2nd half)1.5
VaprusKuressaare
30%Clean sheet after half-time31%
VaprusKuressaare
45%No goal after half-time63%
VaprusKuressaare

Vaprus - second-half results

27% W21% D52% L
38
Half-time points
21
Half-time goals
-8
Goal difference (1st half)
34
Second-half points
-16
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.15
PPG before half-time
Lead holding113%

Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.3

Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Kuressaare - second-half results

16% W38% D47% L
35
Half-time points
17
Half-time goals
-3
Goal difference (1st half)
27
Second-half points
-14
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.09
PPG before half-time
Lead holding124%

Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.3

Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Vaprus - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.000.60
Goals scored / match0.61.0
Goals conceded / match0.81.8
Average goals in match1.42.8
1 goal80%100%
2 goals40%60%
3 goals20%60%
Clean sheet40%20%
No goal40%20%
Goal difference-1-4
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 0% draw - 80% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 3
Kuressaare - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.001.00
Goals scored / match0.60.2
Goals conceded / match0.60.4
Average goals in match1.20.6
1 goal60%60%
2 goals40%0%
3 goals20%0%
Clean sheet60%60%
No goal60%80%
Goal difference0-1
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 40% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 3

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Vaprus
ScoredConceded
5
10
0-15
8
9
16-30
8
10
31-45
9
14
46-60
8
14
61-75
6
11
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.

Kuressaare
ScoredConceded
3
4
0-15
5
10
16-30
9
6
31-45
2
8
46-60
5
11
61-75
10
12
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

3.02
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.5 : 1.6
Estimated goal split
home : away
96%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
57%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-34%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
42%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
10%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 10 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Vaprus

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.78
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.05
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+3.8 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.09
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.04
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
73%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
156%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
-0.60
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.1
Late goals
14% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 11% come in the first quarter-hour.
14%

Kuressaare

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.52
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.01
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+5.5 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.39
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.38
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
80%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
88%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.31
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
29% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 9% come in the first quarter-hour.
29%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).

Teams vs league

VaprusLigaKuressaare
Average goals in match▲ 3.393.13▼ 2.66
Both teams scored▲ 67%57%▼ 47%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 67%64%▼ 53%
Clean sheets▼ 18%23%▼ 16%
Goal before half-time• 76%77%▼ 72%
Goal after half-time▲ 91%88%▼ 81%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.13
Average goals per match
57%
Both teams scored
64%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
23%
Clean sheets
1.81
Home goals / match
1.32
Away goals / match
+37%
Home attack advantage
+27%
Home defence advantage
+8%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
47%
2 goals
17%
3 goals
7%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
88%
1 goal
46%
2 goals
18%
3 goals
9%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Recent meetings (7): Vaprus 3 - 1 - 3 Kuressaare. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 43% matches.

Kuressaare
2 : 2
Vaprus
Vaprus
1 : 0
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
0 : 1
Vaprus
Pärnu JK Vaprus
0 : 1
FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare
2 : 1
Pärnu JK Vaprus
Pärnu JK Vaprus
2 : 1
FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare
1 : 0
Pärnu JK Vaprus

FAQ

When do Vaprus and Kuressaare play?

Vaprus face Kuressaare on 28 October 2026 in Meistriliiga at Pärnu Rannastaadion. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Vaprus and Kuressaare?

In the last 7 head-to-head matches Vaprus won 3, Kuressaare won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 43% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Vaprus vs Kuressaare?

Vaprus score 1.33 goals per game on average and Kuressaare 1.06. The Meistriliiga average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Vaprus's matches and 47% of Kuressaare's.

What form are Vaprus and Kuressaare in?

Over the last 5 games Vaprus have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Kuressaare 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vaprus vs Kuressaare?

The statistical background for Vaprus vs Kuressaare — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.