Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin: match statistics
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lokomotiva Zagreb played Varaždin in Prva HNL (Croatia). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Stadion Maksimir. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Lokomotiva Zagreb: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Varaždin: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lokomotiva Zagreb scores 1.38 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Varaždin scores 1.63 and concedes 0.88. League average: 3.17 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lokomotiva Zagreb 75%, Varaždin 50%. Over 2.5: Lokomotiva Zagreb 63%, Varaždin 50%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 67%.
xG, shots and style
Varaždin has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.16. Lokomotiva Zagreb: 9.9 shots per match, Varaždin: 14.3.
Match halves
Lokomotiva Zagreb: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.63. Varaždin: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.88.
Goals by minute
Lokomotiva Zagreb: 31-45+ (3 goals). Varaždin: 16-30 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prva HNL: 3.17 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 67%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-1. Average goals 2.75, BTTS 75%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Varaždin sit 4th and have lost just 1 of their 8 matches, while seventh-placed Lokomotiva have already suffered 5 defeats. In their last five matches, the visitors have taken 9 points and conceded just 2 goals, whereas the hosts have collected 4 points and conceded 8. Away from home, Varaždin average 16.67 shots and generate an xG of 1.8, giving them an edge over Lokomotiva in chance creation; the hosts average 8.5 shots and an xG of 1.1 at home. However, Lokomotiva score an average of 2 goals per home match, while Varaždin also concede 2 per away game, so an away win is far from certain. Varaždin’s key advantages are their more consistent recent form and more effective defence.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In Lokomotiva’s home matches, both teams scored in 20% of games, while the hosts kept a clean sheet in 80%. Varaždin have recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their away matches and average 2.33 goals there, but in their last 5 matches both teams scored in just 20% of cases. During that period, the visitors conceded only 2 goals, an average of 0.4 per match, while Lokomotiva failed to score in 40% of their home games. Although Varaždin’s away defence concedes an average of 2 goals and gives the hosts a chance to score, the more recent results and Lokomotiva’s frequent clean sheets point somewhat more strongly to BTTS - No: at least one team is expected not to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line landed in 60% of Lokomotiva’s home matches and in all of Varaždin’s away matches. The visitors average 2.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded on the road, which points to both teams finding the net. Caution on higher lines is warranted by Lokomotiva’s home record: they concede just 0.20 goals per match, and Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 20% of their home games. On the other hand, the hosts have conceded an average of 1.60 goals across their last five matches, with opponents posting an xG of 2.39, so their strong home defence does not rule out Varaždin scoring. A forecast of 2.95 total goals supports Over 1.5, but the contrast between the hosts’ home results and the visitors’ away performances reduces confidence in higher goal lines.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Lokomotiva went into the break level in 4 of 5 home matches, while Varaždin did so in 4 of their last 5 matches overall. Both teams kept a clean sheet in the first half in all matches played so far at home and away, respectively, further pointing to a balanced start. The hosts could gain the upper hand after the break: at home they average 0.8 goals in second halves, while the visitors concede an average of 2.0 away from home; Lokomotiva have also won 60% of their home matches, compared with Varaždin's 33% away win rate. The strongest counterpoint is recent form—the visitors have averaged 1.8 points across their last five matches, compared with 0.8 for the hosts—so a draw through to full-time remains a significant possibility, although X/1 is somewhat better supported by the home and away data.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lokomotiva Zagreb | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Varaždin is 500% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1.2 pts / match - Varaždin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varaždin is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1.63 goals / match - Varaždin
Varaždin is 127% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0.88 goals / match - Varaždin
Lokomotiva Zagreb scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Varaždin keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
Varaždin scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Lokomotiva Zagreb keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lokomotiva Zagreb
Over / Under - Varaždin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Varaždin is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1.75 pts / match - Varaždin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lokomotiva Zagreb - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Varaždin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.9 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Lokomotiva Zagreb | Liga | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.38 | 3.17 | ▼ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 55% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 63% | 67% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 26% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 74% | ▼ 38% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 81% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 - 2 - 1 Varaždin. Average goals 2.75, both teams scored in 75% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin?
The Prva HNL match finished Lokomotiva Zagreb 0:1 Varaždin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiva Zagreb and Varaždin?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1, Varaždin won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin?
Lokomotiva Zagreb score 1.38 goals per game on average and Varaždin 1.63. The Prva HNL average is 3.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 67% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Lokomotiva Zagreb's matches and 50% of Varaždin's.
What form are Lokomotiva Zagreb and Varaždin in?
Over the last 5 games Lokomotiva Zagreb have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Varaždin 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.