Varaždin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb: match statistics
Varaždin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Varaždin play Lokomotiva Zagreb in Prva HNL (Croatia). The match date is 9 May 2026 at 18:45. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Varaždin: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Lokomotiva Zagreb: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Varaždin scores 1.31 and concedes 1.28 goals per match. Lokomotiva Zagreb scores 1.11 and concedes 1.44. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Varaždin 61%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 64%. Over 2.5: Varaždin 47%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 42%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Varaždin has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.31. Varaždin: 11.5 shots per match, Lokomotiva Zagreb: 10.2.
Match halves
Varaždin: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.53. Lokomotiva Zagreb: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Varaždin: 0-15 (10 goals). Lokomotiva Zagreb: 0-15 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prva HNL: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 1-1-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 67%.
Match description
I back Varaždin to win (1): the hosts have a 50% home win rate, score an average of 1.44 goals per match and register 4.06 shots on target per game, while Lokomotiva win only 13% of away fixtures and score an average of 0.94 goals on the road. Varaždin also creates better chances by xG: average home xG is 1.50 versus 1.28 xG for Lokomotiva away, and the hosts have a lower share of matches without a goal (13% vs 31%). Defensively Varaždin concedes 1.25 goals on average at home with xG against 1.68, so they defend better than xG suggests, whereas Lokomotiva concedes 1.63 goals away with xG against 1.43 and have only 13% clean sheets on the road. In the last 5 matches Varaždin are 3-0-2 (1.8 points per game) and Lokomotiva 3-1-1 (2.0 points per game), however the difference in home-team efficiency (13.06 shots and 11% conversion vs 10.06 shots and 9% for the visitors) favors Varaždin. Considering the higher home win rate, superior chance creation and lower share of goalless games, I assess the probability of a home win at 60%, draw 20% and away win 20%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Varaždin | Lokomotiva Zagreb | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Varaždin is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Varaždin · 0.8 pts / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varaždin is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.31 goals / match - Varaždin · 1.11 goals / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.28 goals / match - Varaždin · 1.44 goals / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin scores in 83% of matches (30 of 36 matches), while Lokomotiva Zagreb keeps a clean sheet in 19% (7 of 36 matches).
Lokomotiva Zagreb scores in 78% of matches (28 of 36 matches), while Varaždin keeps a clean sheet in 28% (10 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Varaždin
Over / Under — Lokomotiva Zagreb
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Varaždin is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.44 pts / match - Varaždin · 1.19 pts / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Varaždin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Lokomotiva Zagreb - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 28%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (10 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Varaždin
Lokomotiva Zagreb
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Varaždin | Liga | Lokomotiva Zagreb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.58 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 61% | 52% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 47% | 49% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | • 28% | 28% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | • 78% | 77% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 72% | 77% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Varaždin 1 - 1 - 1 Lokomotiva Zagreb. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Varaždin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The Prva HNL match finished Varaždin 1:1 Lokomotiva Zagreb. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Varaždin and Lokomotiva Zagreb?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Varaždin won 1, Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Varaždin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Varaždin score 1.31 goals per game on average and Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.11. The Prva HNL average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Varaždin's matches and 64% of Lokomotiva Zagreb's.
What form are Varaždin and Lokomotiva Zagreb in?
Over the last 5 games Varaždin have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-4-1 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Varaždin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.